segnalazioni di letture di economia sugli effetti del sisma

Posted on 1 febbraio 2013


Riceviamo da Fabrizio Ferretti (UniMORE) due segnalazioni di analisi sugli effetti di eventi sismici da un punto di vista economico:
[2010] The Economics of Natural Disasters. A Survey, by Eduardo Cavallo e Ilan Noy
Department of Research and Chief EconomistIDB WORKING PAPER SERIES No. IDB-WP-124, May 2010
Natural disasters are by no means new, yet the evolving understanding of their relevance to economic development and growth is still in its infancy. This paper summarizes the state of the economic literature examining the aggregate impact of disasters. The paper reviews the main disaster data sources available, discusses the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguishes between short- and long-run indirect effects. The paper then examines some of the relevant policy questions and follows up with projections about the likelihood of future disasters. The paper ends by identifying several significant gaps in the literature.

[2012] The impact of Japan’s earthquake on the global economy, by Raul Sampognaro, Michaël Sicsic
No. 100 April 2012, Trésor Economics [study prepared under the authority of the Directorate General of the Treasury (DG Trésor, FR)]
The negative impact of the triple disaster on Japanese and
global growth in the first half of 2011 should be partly counterbalanced by a rebound in 2012 and subsequent years due to publicly financed reconstruction (under the stimulus
programs enacted after the disaster, which total 4.5 points of  GDP in 2011-2015) and private reconstruction. The impact of
a natural disaster is not necessarily negative for GDP growth at a one- or two-year horizon, particularly for developed countries like Japan. Accordingly, after GDP contracted by 0.7% in 2011, Japan could have one of the highest growth rates
among the developed countries in 2012 (with the April 2012 Consensus Forecast at 2.0%) and could stimulate the global
economy by a rebound in imports.